Japan Society for the Promotion of Science:Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
Date (from‐to) : 2014/04 -2017/03
Author : Hayashida Minoru; NANBA RYOICHI
Using a DSGE model estimated by Bayesian inference methods, we investigated the short-to-mid term effects of tax reform policies, including the one increasing the consumption tax rate. For that purpose, we formulated a model with two types of workers, high-skilled and low-skilled ones, and estimated it with Bayesian methods. The main collusions are the following. (1) A consumption tax increase yielded a rise in the price level, but a decline in the consumption and production. (2) It increases the average wage rate and decreases the real interest rate. (3) The wage gap between the high-skilled and low-skilled workers shrinks in the short term, but (4) widens in the mid term. (5) As for the capital/labor income ratio , the labor’s share increases and the capital’s share declines in the short-to-mid term.