Japan Society for the Promotion of Science:Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
Date (from‐to) : 2012/04 -2015/03
Author : OSAWA Kiyoshi; AIDA Kento
A probability distribution of runs scored in a baseball game and a winning percentage of the game are able to be computed by multiplying matrices, which are defined by some results of players.
We proposed the method to evaluate players by the relation between the winning percentage and their results. The existing model to compute the probability distributions was based on only batting results, so that fielding results were not applied to the computation. We incorporated fielding results into the extended model.
The numerical experiment indicated that impact of difference in winning percentages, which were calculated from the model with fielding results of players who have good and poor fielding skill, corresponded to about 2 wins for a season. While this problem had large computational complexity due to adding fielding results to the model, the parallel computational environment enabled us to find an optimal batting order among about 210 million orders in 1 hour 22 minutes.